Expected Move Calculator
Calculate the exact price range the market expects an asset to trade within based on current Implied Volatility (IV). Find precise levels for day trading profit targets.
Tip: Set to 1 for Daily Expected Move, 5 for Weekly, or 30 for Monthly.
30-Day Expected Move
The market is pricing in a 68.2% probability (1 Standard Deviation) that price stays within this range.
How to Trade Using the Expected Move
The Expected Move formula is a mathematical model derived from Options Implied Volatility (IV) that tells traders exactly how far the market "prices in" an asset to move over a specific timeframe. It acts as an objective, emotionless target for your day trades.
The Rule of 68.2%
Because expected moves are based on standard normal distribution, the calculated move represents a 1 Standard Deviation (1SD) range. Statistically, there is a 68.2% probability that the price of the asset will close inside this upper and lower bound by the time the timeframe expires.
How Institutional Prop Traders Use It
- Setting Profit Targets: If a stock or index opens and immediately trends, day traders will often use the Implied Daily Move as their ultimate take-profit level. Once a 1SD move is achieved intraday, the probability of a reversal skyrockets.
- Options Selling: Premium sellers (Iron Condors, Strangles) will sell option strikes that sit outside the expected move range, capturing premium with a high statistical probability of success.
- Earnings Plays: Before a major earnings report, the front-term IV will spike. By calculating the expected move, you can see exactly how many dollars the market expects the stock to gap up or down.